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Towards Human-AI Complementarity with Prediction Sets

Neural Information Processing Systems

Decision support systems based on prediction sets have proven to be effective at helping human experts solve classification tasks. Rather than providing single-label predictions, these systems provide sets of label predictions constructed using conformal prediction, namely prediction sets, and ask human experts to predict label values from these sets. In this paper, we first show that the prediction sets constructed using conformal prediction are, in general, suboptimal in terms of average accuracy. Then, we show that the problem of finding the optimal prediction sets under which the human experts achieve the highest average accuracy is NP-hard. More strongly, unless P = NP, we show that the problem is hard to approximate to any factor less than the size of the label set. However, we introduce a simple and efficient greedy algorithm that, for a large class of expert models and non-conformity scores, is guaranteed to find prediction sets that provably offer equal or greater performance than those constructed using conformal prediction. Further, using a simulation study with both synthetic and real expert predictions, we demonstrate that, in practice, our greedy algorithm finds near-optimal prediction sets offering greater performance than conformal prediction.


RoBoN: Routed Online Best-of-n for Test-Time Scaling with Multiple LLMs

Geuter, Jonathan, Kornhardt, Gregor

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Best-of-$n$ is a widely used test-time scaling approach for LLM inference. Yet despite evidence that LLMs exhibit complementary strengths across tasks, traditionally best-of-$n$ relies on a single model to generate responses. We propose RoBoN (Routed Online Best-of-$n$), a sequential multi-LLM alternative to the prevailing single-model best-of-$n$. Given a suite of models $\{m_i\}_{i=1}^M$, RoBoN sequentially routes generations one-by-one across models, based on scores computed using a reward model and an agreement signal on the predicted responses. This online routing requires no additional training, keeps compute parity, and works with any plug-in reward model. Across reasoning benchmarks (MATH500, OlympiadBench, MinervaMath, GSM8K, MMLU), RoBoN consistently outperforms standard best-of-$n$ applied to each individual model for larger $n$, with gains of up to 3.4\% in absolute accuracy, and also improves over a uniform multi-model portfolio baseline. Our results indicate that diversity across models can be exploited at inference to improve best-of-$n$ performance over any constituent model alone, providing a simple, training-free path to test-time scaling with multiple LLMs.


CrossVid: A Comprehensive Benchmark for Evaluating Cross-Video Reasoning in Multimodal Large Language Models

Li, Jingyao, Wang, Jingyun, Tan, Molin, Wang, Haochen, Yan, Cilin, Shi, Likun, Cai, Jiayin, Jiang, Xiaolong, Hu, Yao

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Cross-Video Reasoning (CVR) presents a significant challenge in video understanding, which requires simultaneous understanding of multiple videos to aggregate and compare information across groups of videos. Most existing video understanding benchmarks focus on single-video analysis, failing to assess the ability of multimodal large language models (MLLMs) to simultaneously reason over various videos. Recent benchmarks evaluate MLLMs' capabilities on multi-view videos that capture different perspectives of the same scene. However, their limited tasks hinder a thorough assessment of MLLMs in diverse real-world CVR scenarios. To this end, we introduce CrossVid, the first benchmark designed to comprehensively evaluate MLLMs' spatial-temporal reasoning ability in cross-video contexts. Firstly, CrossVid encompasses a wide spectrum of hierarchical tasks, comprising four high-level dimensions and ten specific tasks, thereby closely reflecting the complex and varied nature of real-world video understanding. Secondly, CrossVid provides 5,331 videos, along with 9,015 challenging question-answering pairs, spanning single-choice, multiple-choice, and open-ended question formats. Through extensive experiments on various open-source and closed-source MLLMs, we observe that Gemini-2.5-Pro performs best on CrossVid, achieving an average accuracy of 50.4%. Notably, our in-depth case study demonstrates that most current MLLMs struggle with CVR tasks, primarily due to their inability to integrate or compare evidence distributed across multiple videos for reasoning. These insights highlight the potential of CrossVid to guide future advancements in enhancing MLLMs' CVR capabilities.


Don't Reach for the Stars: Rethinking Topology for Resilient Federated Learning

Konstantin, Mirko, Mukhopadhyay, Anirban

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Federated learning (FL) enables collaborative model training across distributed clients while preserving data privacy by keeping data local. Traditional FL approaches rely on a centralized, star-shaped topology, where a central server aggregates model updates from clients. However, this architecture introduces several limitations, including a single point of failure, limited personalization, and poor robustness to distribution shifts or vulnerability to malfunctioning clients. Moreover, update selection in centralized FL often relies on low-level parameter differences, which can be unreliable when client data is not independent and identically distributed, and offer clients little control. In this work, we propose a decentralized, peer-to-peer (P2P) FL framework. It leverages the flexibility of the P2P topology to enable each client to identify and aggregate a personalized set of trustworthy and beneficial updates.This framework is the Local Inference Guided Aggregation for Heterogeneous Training Environments to Yield Enhancement Through Agreement and Regularization (LIGHTYEAR). Central to our method is an agreement score, computed on a local validation set, which quantifies the semantic alignment of incoming updates in the function space with respect to the clients reference model. Each client uses this score to select a tailored subset of updates and performs aggregation with a regularization term that further stabilizes the training. Our empirical evaluation across five datasets shows that the proposed approach consistently outperforms both, centralized baselines and existing P2P methods in terms of client-level performance, particularly under adversarial and heterogeneous conditions.


The use of vocal biomarkers in the detection of Parkinson's disease: a robust statistical performance comparison of classic machine learning models

Sacramento, Katia Pires Nascimento do, Garcia, Elliot Q. C., Vilela, Nicéias Silva, Sacramento, Vinicius P., Ferreira, Tiago A. E.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Parkinson's disease (PD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder that, in addition to directly impairing functional mobility, is frequently associated with vocal impairments such as hypophonia and dysarthria, which typically manifest in the early stages. The use of vocal biomarkers to support the early diagnosis of PD presents a non-invasive, low-cost, and accessible alternative in clinical settings. Thus, the objective of this cross-sectional study was to consistently evaluate the effectiveness of a Deep Neural Network (DNN) in distinguishing individuals with Parkinson's disease from healthy controls, in comparison with traditional Machine Learning (ML) methods, using vocal biomarkers. Two publicly available voice datasets were used. Mel-frequency cepstral coefficients (MFCCs) were extracted from the samples, and model robustness was assessed using a validation strategy with 1000 independent random executions. Performance was evaluated using classification statistics. Since normality assumptions were not satisfied, non-parametric tests (Kruskal-Wallis and Bonferroni post-hoc tests) were applied to verify whether the tested classification models were similar or different in the classification of PD. With an average accuracy of $98.65\%$ and $92.11\%$ on the Italian Voice dataset and Parkinson's Telemonitoring dataset, respectively, the DNN demonstrated superior performance and efficiency compared to traditional ML models, while also achieving competitive results when benchmarked against relevant studies. Overall, this study confirms the efficiency of DNNs and emphasizes their potential to provide greater accuracy and reliability for the early detection of neurodegenerative diseases using voice-based biomarkers.